Four ways Oregon can beat Illinois tomorrow

No. 20 Illinois is Oregon's last currently-ranked opponent

The No. 1-ranked Oregon Ducks (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) host the No. 20-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) at 12:30 p.m. Saturday. Illinois is the only of Oregon’s five remaining opponents to currently hold a spot in the AP Top 25 College Football Poll. Illinois has already beaten three ranked teams this year, but the Ducks are favored by three touchdowns. Here are four ways the Ducks can defeat the Fighting Illini inside Autzen Stadium on Saturday.

1. Exploiting Illinois’ man coverage tendencies

Illinois’ defense has played the sixth-most man coverage snaps of any team in the country and blitzes at the 33rd-highest rate of any team. As a result, their defensive backs are often in one-on-one coverage with minimal help from roving safeties. That’ll be a dangerous game for Illinois to play against Oregon’s elite receiving corps. Tez Johnson has been elite all season, and star transfer Evan Stewart seems to have finally found his stride. The two tormented standout Ohio State cornerback and draft prospect Denzel Burke in their most recent home game and will look to do the same against Illinois.

2. Eliminating the run on defense

Illinois ranks 102nd in the FBS in passing plays per game. Despite their consistent use of the rushing game, the Fighting Illini have seen little success. Their PFF Rushing grade of 80.1 is the third-worst in the Big Ten, ahead of only Northwestern and UCLA. Through seven games, their leading rusher Kaden Fagin has only 306 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Oregon recently held Ohio State, the Big Ten’s best rushing offense, to 80 yards less than the Buckeyes had previously averaged. If the Ducks can make Illinois’ middling rushing attack an afterthought, Oregon’s talented defensive line will be free to blitz and disrupt Illinois’ passing game. Which brings us to…

3. Pressuring Luke Altmeyer

Illinois has allowed 20 sacks this year, tying them with 2-5 UCLA for last in the Big Ten. Only 18 FBS teams have allowed more. Meanwhile, Oregon has 20 defensive sacks on the year, tied for 18th-best. Defensive ends Matayo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch each have five sacks. Interior defender Derrick Harmon leads the nation with 32 pressures, with only Ole Miss’ Walter Nolen (23) coming within 10 pressures of the lead. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeyer likes to throw deep, so consistent pressure will be an important part of slowing him defensively. On throws of 20+ yards, Altmeyer leads all FBS starting quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage (59.3%). He’s sixth in attempts (27), fifth in completions (13) and third in touchdowns (5). The Ducks will need to get to Altmeyer early if they want to stop him from adding to those numbers.

4. Running the ball 

Oregon currently ranks T-29th in PFF Rushing Grade (84.2), while Illinois currently ranks 111th in PFF Run Defense (67.6). That makes Illinois a favorable matchup for dynamic Ducks running back Jordan James, who’s taken 121 carries (19th in FBS) for 717 yards (T-14th) and eight touchdowns (T-20th). But he’s not the only one Illinois should worry about, because Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel is a mobile threat as well. Gabriel scored a 54-yard touchdown against Oregon State as well as a 27-yarder in the victory over Ohio State two weeks ago. That same week, Illinois allowed Purdue to run for 239 yards and two touchdowns. However, they stiffened against Michigan last week, allowing less than half of that. They’ll need to continue that momentum if they want a chance of beating the No. 1 team in the country this weekend inside Autzen Stadium.